Highlights
The gain markets hosted a negative day on god US planting weather and weakness in the energy sector. Farmers are mostly disengaged in the markets as the focus becomes that of getting the new crop in the ground. Supply disruptions continue with reports of more meat plants closings and swelling supplies of oil with lack of storage space to hold it. Some states around the US make plans to reopen or have begun to reopen.
- The energy markets are weaker with crude oil down 3.85 at $13.09/barrel. Support is seen at $10.
- The US$ is down 339 at 100.041, the gold market is down 9-10 bucks at 1714, the CD$ is up 0.00365 at 0.71285.
- DJIA up 393 at 24168, S&P up 48 at 2877 and NASDAQ up 103 at 8373.
- First Notice Day for May futures is Thursday.
- Check your open deck for orders that can be canceled.
- The next USDA report is scheduled for May 12 at 11 AM (updated US and world balance sheets).
Corn
The corn market set back, pressured by sharp losses in the energy market. Additional pressure came from rapid planting progress being made across much of the US Midwest. More announcements of meat plant closures and fears of reducing livestock numbers from the coronavirus.
- Closes: May at $3.05, down 10 ¾ cents, July at $3.13, down 10 cents, September at $3.18 ½, down 9 cents, December at $3.29, down 7 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were solid at 1.1 mmt. This compares to trade estimates between 800 tmt and 1.1 mmt.
- Planting progress is estimated at 22% complete (18-27), compared to 7% last week.
- Ukraine last week suggested they may curb the corn exports but today they say they will continue to export corn.
- Spreads: K/N 8 carry, N/U 5 ¾ carry, N/Z 16 carry, Z/N 25 ¾ carry.
Oilseeds
The soybean market traded lower in sympathy with the corn and energy markets. Some end of month positioning was noted. Weather is mostly favorable for soybean planting as some farmers move unto beans as they finish up with their corn acres. There is some concern that the soil temperatures might not be high enough, but they are planting anyway, in a effort to get the crop in ahead of the upcoming rain events.
- Closes: May at $8.29 ¼, down 3 cents, July at $8.36 ½, down 3 cents, August at $8.38, down 2 cents, November at $8.40 ¼, down 1 ¾ cents. The products were weaker with meal down 2-3 bucks and oil down 3 points.
- Weekly export inspections were 557 tmt, near the top end of what the trade was looking for (400-600 tmt).
- Planting progress is estimated at 8% complete (4-12), compared to 2% last week.
- X/H & X/N appear to be staying at an inverse on ideas that if China were to be looking for sizable supplies of US beans that they would be looking for later in the year , when the US is harvesting beans.
- Spreads: K/N 7 ¼ carry, N/Q 1 ½ carry, Q/X 2 ¼ carry, X/F 1 carry, X/H 11 ¾ inverse, X/N 7 ¼ inverse.
Wheat
The wheat market was weaker in sympathy with the r ow crop and the energy market. Prices drew additional pressure from improving chances for rain across Europe.
- July closes: Mpls at $4.94, down 5 cents, KC at $4.78 ¾, down 4 ½ cents, Chicago at $5.23 ¾, down 6 ¾ cents.
- Weekly export inspections were 501 tmt, inline with trade estimates of 400-650 tmt.
- Spring wheat planting progress is estimated at 18% (16-23) versus 7% previously.
- Winter wheat conditions are expected to be unchanged at 57% G/E (53-60).
- Beneficial rain events are expected move across Europe and the Black Sea region this week.
- Paris milling wheat prices were softer on rain forecasts for Europe over the next couple of weeks.
- Spreads: Mpls K/N 15 carry, N/U 11 ¾ carry, Kansas City K/N 9 ¼ carry, N/U 7 carry, Chicago K/N 3 ¾ carry.
