Ami Heesh

May 4, 2020


The grain markets were mixed with the row crops on the defensive from heightened tensions between the US and China over the CoronaVirus and the wheat market garnering support from the potential crop losses in Europe and the Black Sea Region along with crop worries in the US HRW and SRW from freezing temperatures.  

  • Crop progress/conditions report: Corn at 51% planted with 8% emerged.......Beans 23% planted with zero emerged......Spring wheat 29% planted with 6% emerged.......Winter Wheat 55% G/E with 32% headed ........
  • The energy markets are mostly higher with the June crude oil making a nice rebound, up 1.16 at 20.94/barrel (18.05-21.0).
  • The US$ maintained throughout the day, trading up 442 at 99.522, the gold market is up 11-12 bucks at 1712 and the CD$ is off a freckle at 0.71015.
  • DJIA up 22 at 23743, S&P up 7 at 2828, NASDAQ up 87 at 8692.
  • StatsCan acreage and stocks reports are scheduled for Thursday, May 7.
  • The next USDA monthly S&D report is scheduled for Tuesday, May 12th at 11 AM CDT. 


Corn futures stumbled on heightened tensions between the US and China from the CoronaVirus. Prices drew additional pressure from ongoing disruption to the ethanol and livestock markets. Farmers continue to plant corn ahead of any measurable rain event and weather forecasts suggesting a cooler temperatures this week. 

  • Closes: July at $3.15 ¾, down 2 ¾ cents, September at $3.22 ¼, down 3 ¼ cents, December at $3.33 ¾, down 3 cents.
  • The USDA announced the sale of 116k tonnes of corn to Unknown for the current marketing year.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 1.2 mmt (estimates were 850 tmt-1.1 mmt).
  • Planting progress estimated at 48% complete (42-58) versus 27% last week.
  • Spreads: N/U 6 ¾ carry, N/Z 18 carry, Z/H 13 ¾ carry, Z/N 27 ¾ carry.


Sharp losses in the soy complex on CoronaVirus disruptions, and renewed tensions between the US and China. Prices drew addition pressure from poor export demand and waning feed needs from recent meat processing closures. 

  • Closes: July at $8.35 ½, down 14 cents, August at $8.37 ½, down 13 ¼ cents, November at $8.44, down 11 cents. The products were weaker with meal down 4-5 bucks and oil down 35 points.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 318 tmt versus trade estimates of 400-600 tmt.
  • Planting progress is estimated at 21% (16-35) versus 8% last week.
  • Spreads: N/Q 2 carry, Q/X 6 ¾ carry, X/F 3 ½ carry, X/H 6 inverse, X/N 2 carry. 


The wheat market opened lower on technical selling and weakness in the row crops.  Prices turned higher midday on decent weekly export inspections, despite continued weakness in the corn market. Ideas are that Europe, Russia and Ukraine could see crop losses from extended dry periods. Prices drew support from ongoing concerns of damage and crop losses to the US HRW from recent frigid temperatures.  Cool weather this week with forecasts for a bit of frostbite possible in SRW country provided additional support to the wheat market.   

  • July closes: Mpls at $5.08 ¼, up 1 ½ cents, KC $4.88 ¼, up 5 ¼ cents, Chicago at $5.20 ¾, up 4 ¼ cents.
  • Chicago July saw a 15 ½ trading range, KC July saw a 13 ½ cent trading range and Mpls July saw a 7 ¾ cent trading range (rapid planting progress).
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 536 tmt compared to trade estimates of 400-650 tmt.
  • Planting progress is estimated at 30% (23-35) versus 14% last week.
  • Winter wheat conditions expected to be 53% G/E (52-55), down 1% from last week at 54% G/E.
  • Spreads:  Mpls N/U 11 ¼ carry, U/Z 13 ¾ carry......Kansas City N/U 7 carry, U/Z 10 ¼ carry. Mpls July sits at a 20 ¾ cent premium to KC July, Mpls Sep sits at a 25 cent premium to the KC Sep.