Highlights
- Trade will watch for todays EIA energy reports and ethanol production reports, expecting some large declines to start showing up.
- Interest rates on FSA marketing assistance loans for April will be 1.625%, down from 2.5% in March.
- China will auction another 20,000 tons of pork from government reserves this week.
- Russia is on holiday this week [or some may say ‘lock-down’.
- US equity markets appear to be under pressure this morning from negative headlines on the Coronavirus.
- U. S. Dollar index +.564 @ 99.614, Crude Oil +.09 @ $20.57, Dow futures -720 @ 21,031.
Corn
- USDA reports:corn planted acres estimated at 97.0 mil acres vs the average trade estimate of 94.3 mil, an 8% increase versus last year.
- USDA put March 1 corn stocks at 7.953 bil bushels. The trade average guess was 8.125 bil. Last year stocks were 8.613 bil.
- CIF NOLA barge corn basis was firmer yesterday, bids up 4-5 cents.
- CZ printed a new contract low at $3.53 ¼, but managed to close back up at $3.57 ½ .
Outlook: the reports didn’t make much shift in price action. Corn gets a front end supportive number and a backend bearish number to ponder for the trade. Keep in mind, the surveys were done the first of March before the energy market collapse that drug corn into the abyss. The front end corn spreads returned to a firmer trade tone yesterday. Calls: -2 to start
Oilseeds
- USDA reports:bean planted acres estimated 83.5 mil acres vs the average trade estimate of 84.865 mil.
- USDA put March 1 bean stocks at 2.253 bil bushels. The trade average guess was 2.241 bil.Last year stocks were at 2.727 bil.
- CIF NOLA bean basis values were quite firmer so far this week.
Outlook: beans were able to hold the line and stay firmer after the USDA reports, even with meal a bit weaker. Beans have been able to consolidate into a sideways pattern this week. Questions of timely export loadings out of Argentine and Brazilian ports has retained a top shelf concern for the trade this week. Calls: 8-10 lower
Wheat
- Russia announced the government will sell half of its wheat intervention stocks [total 1.8 mil tons] for domestic mill usage, to help prevent any spike in domestic prices.
- March 1 wheat stocks were put at 1.412 bil bushels, just under the average guess of 1.430 bil. All wheat planted acres came in at 44.65 mil acres vs expectations of 45.0 mil.Last year acreage was at 45.158 mil acres.
- HRW del KC spot basis much weaker yesterday;ords -10 @ +95K, 11% -12 @ +108K, 12% -7 @ +150K, 13 @ +183K.11.4% proteins were -22 @ +108K.
- Algeria was reported to buy 250k tons of wheat in their tender, another small amount considering their ‘typical’ purchase amounts of 500k+. Likely French origin, and US values were said to be $13-$15 above the trade value of $245/ton C&F.
- Egypt will resume wheat inspections at port of origins once origin country’s remove quarantine restrictions.
- Eastern Ukraine and Southern Russia winter wheat areas have been dryer than usual. Little precipitation in the forecast for first two weeks in April. Some spring weather concerns may start to catch the market’s attention.
Outlook: Chicago WK/N continued to slide back, and interest in KC took over leading wheat to the upside yesterday. Weaker cash basis also noted in the domestic markets. Calls: 4-6 lower