Morning Highlights

Scott Strand

Apr 7, 2020


By Joe Lardy

Highlights

  • There will be no grain trading on Friday, April 10th as the markets are closed for the Good Friday/Easter holiday.
  • The next WASDE report is scheduled for this coming Thursday, April 9th.
  • The WHO Director-General said COVID-19 treatment and vaccine research has “accelerated at incredible speed,” he also stated “about 20 institutions and companies are racing to develop a vaccine”.
  • Food processing facilities continue to tackle COVID-19 challenges. Tyson Foods suspended operations at Columbus Junction, Iowa pork plant as a result of more than 24 cases of COVID-19 involving team members at the facility.  
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 AM: May crude oil was up $.38 at $26.46 per barrel, April gold up $4 at $1,681, US Dollar Index is down 0.505 at 100.18, and Dow futures up 1627 at 22,680.

Corn

  • Corn is trading higher overnight by 4 cents.
  • Estimates for the upcoming WASDE report are out.  Corn ending stocks have a pretty wide range between 1.792 and 2.150 billion bushels. World ending stocks have a huge range of 8 million tons between 293 and 301 million tonnes.  
  • Four workers at ADM’s Clinton Iowa corn processing facility have tested positive for corona. Operations are still continuing. 
  • July corn futures traded lower for 7 straight sessions.
  • Spreads: K/N 5.75 cent carry; N/U 5.25 cent carry; U/Z 9 cent carry.

Outlook:  Will today be another head fake with corn starting lower only to give up the gains later in the day.  

Oilseeds

  • Soybeans are 4 cents higher in overnight trade, with soybean meal up $.70 per ton and soybean oil is up $0.28 per lb..
  • AgRural lowered their Brazilian soybean estimate from 124.3 to 123.8 million tonnes.  Harvest is roughly 85% complete.   
  • Estimates for the upcoming WASDE report are out.  Soybean ending stocks have a range between 385 and 475 million bushels. World ending stocks have a huge range of almost 8 million tons between 97 and 104.85 million tonnes.
  • Malaysian palm oil was 66 ringgits higher, or nearly 3%, settling at 2,375 ringgits. A rally in crude oil and soybean oil prices help push palm higher.
  •  Spreads: K/N 6 cent carry; N/Q 2.75 cent carry; Q/X 2 cent carry.

 

Outlook: Beans are higher as South American production estimates continue to move lower.

Wheat

  • The wheat markets are much softer in the overnight session, with Chicago and Kansas City down 6 cents, while Minneapolis is 3 cents lower.
  •  The national good/excellent rating was at 62% in the first report of the spring. The last rating in the fall was at 52% so a solid improvement.  The average decline from fall to spring the last 5 year average is 5% so this year’s improvement is a bit abnormal. 
  • France’s ag ministry said that their soft wheat crop will drop by 7.5% this year and land at a 17 year low on acres.  The cite bad fall weather for the big drop in acres.
  • Spreads: Chicago K/N 4.25 cent inverse; Kansas City K/N 6.25 cent carry; Minneapolis K/N 11 cent carry.

 

Outlook: Wheat is on the defensive today despite the strength in the row crops.  I stated this yesterday, but the pattern remains intact that the wheat market has been extremely choppy. Today is no exception.