Morning Highlights

Scott Strand

Apr 17, 2020

Highlights 

  • May Crude Oil is making new contract lows this morning.
  • May grain options expire a week from today on April 24th.
  • The 6-10 day outlook has above normal precipitation and temperatures forecast for most of the cornbelt, as planters await better conditions to resume corn planting.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up 025 at 100.050, Crude Oil down $1.41 at $18.46, Dow up 758 at 24165 and Gold down $24.10 at $1707.60. 

Corn

  • Argentina is in talks with Brazil, discussing larger water releases from the Itaipu dam in order to raise the Parana river water level to increase draft depth for boat loadings.
  • BAGE estimated Argentina’s corn crop is 32.7% harvested and left their production estimate at 50mmt (USDA also at 50mmt).
  • Nearby corn on China’s Dalian exchange hit its highest price since February 2016 in yesterday’s trade.

Outlook: Some small strength to start as discussions about when to re-open the economy has given some measure of hope about the future of ethanol demand.


Oilseeds

  • Five U.S. governors are seeking a bio-fuel blending waiver during this period of reduced fuel demand; affecting both corn ethanol and soy bio-diesel requirements.
  • BAGE estimated Argentina’s soybean harvest 37.8% complete, 10 pts ahead of average, and left their production estimate at 49.5mmt (USDA at 52mmt).
  • Weekly broiler egg sets were down 5% from a year ago and down 8% from a month ago.Chick placements were down 5% from a month ago, suggesting a period of reduced feed demand. 

Outlook: Quiet, inside day to start.  Brazil’s Real is stronger and the market is mulling demand ramifications of re-opening the economy. 

Wheat

  • Egypt’s GASC bought 240tmt wheat in yesterday’s snap tender; 180tmt of French and 60tmt of Russian wheat for the May 21 to June 5th shipment period.
  • Romania’s ban on cereal grain exports to non-EU countries was lifted yesterday.
  • Taiwan tendered for 220tmt of U.S. milling wheat with an April 23rd deadline.
  • India’s wheat harvest is reported off to a slow start with labor shortages due to COVID-19 lockdowns.  More combines are running, but some farmers are complaining that straw yield is half that of manual harvest, leaving them less to use in cattle feed. 

Outlook: More weakness overnight with rain in the forecast for dry areas in the world, and disappointment that U.S. HRW did not connect on Egypt’s tender due to high freight differential.