Morning Highlights

Scott Strand

Apr 16, 2020

Highlights 

  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up 379 at 99.840, Crude Oil up $.26 at $20.13, Dow up 39 at 23430 and Gold up $25.40 at $1765.60.
  • The U.S. government launched a website tracking tool yesterday for individuals to check the status of Economic Impact payments: Get My Payment
  • The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association commissioned a study on cattle industry losses due to COVID-19, which estimated those losses will hit $13.6 billion.
  • The DHS, along with USDA, announced a temporary rule change to allow in-country foreign workers to help lessen COVID-19 impacts to the U.S. food chain. 

Corn

  • Weekly exports of corn were 969.5tmt vs estimates of 570tmt – 1.55mmt.
  • Last week’s ethanol production dropped 102k bbl/day to 570K (a year ago it was 1.106 million bbl/day), and stocks increased 378k bbls to a record high 27.469 mil bbls.
  • Open interest increased yesterday in corn by 12,476 contracts, suggesting new sellers entering the market pushed prices to new contract lows. 

Outlook: Prices recover a portion of yesterday’s sharp losses, in light overnight volume. 

Oilseeds

  • Weekly exports of soybeans were 304.7tmt vs estimates of 375tmt – 900tmt, soymeal 158.8tmt vs estimates of 100tmt – 275tmt and soyoil 21.2tmt vs estimates of 8tmt – 40tmt.
  • NOPA crush for March was 181.374 mbu vs the average estimate of 175.16 mbu, a new record high for any month.
  • The Rosario exchanged lowered their estimate of Argentina’s soybean crop by 1mmt to 50.5mmt due to poor weather conditions.USDA is currently at 52mmt. 

Outlook: Mixed action is expected after 3 days of losses, with poor export sales this morning, Brazil’s Real currency is lower again and soymeal extends yesterday’s gains. 

Wheat

  • Weekly exports of wheat were 597.7tmt vs estimates of 250tmt – 650tmt.
  • Egypt’s GASC issued their 2nd tender this week, seeking soft and/or milling wheat for the May 21 to June 5th shipment period.  For a change, U.S. HRW is the lowest offer on a FOB basis.
  • FranceAgriMer increased its estimate of France’s soft wheat exports outside of the EU by 500tmt to 13.2mmt, which would be a record high level.
  • Ukraine is prepared to ban wheat exports if sales exceed a pre-determined level, but so far the current pace does not look likely to exceed it, according to an ag ministry official there. 

Outlook: Mixed to start the day,  Paris future’s higher, but awaiting results of Egypt tender to see if U.S. connects with business there.